During a fraught election cycle filled with fear and immigration crackdowns, preliminary special election results show how San Francisco’s Latino-heavy neighborhoods voted.
Precincts in Bernal Heights, the Mission, Treasure Island, Excelsior, the Tenderloin and Bayview districts — whose populations are about one-third Latino, according to a San Francisco Chronicle analysis — averaged 31% turnout, compared with 37% citywide, Department of Elections data shows. In the 2024 presidential election, these precincts averaged 68% turnout, compared with 80% citywide.
The dense Latino neighborhoods averaged a 85% yes vote, ranging from 79% in the Excelsior to 93% in Bernal Heights. Citywide, 84% of voters approved Proposition 50.
CNN exit polls show that 71% of Latinos voted yes for Proposition 50, and 84% of Latinos within the 18-29 age range approved the measure. About 71% of voters of color voted yes on it, while 58% of white voters approved the measure.
“As we head into next year’s midterm elections, it’s just yet another data point to show why investing in not just Latinos, but voters of color in general, is so important to determine the outcome of next year’s midterm elections,” said Christian Arana, vice president of civic power and policy at the Latino Community Foundation. “These young Latino voters demonstrated that they were paying attention. If I were any political party, I’d be watching out for that specific group in general.”
Proposition 50, the California ballot measure designed to redraw congressional districts, overwhelmingly passed with 64% of the vote. The maps approved for this initiative are expected to give the Democratic party five additional seats in Congress as a counter to President Donald Trump’s push to gerrymander districts in other states to retain Republican control after the 2026 midterm election. Following the special election, the California Republican Party announced it would be suing the state, claiming that the proposition violates the constitution and is racially biased in favor of Latinos.
Arana emphasized that despite the proposition passing, the districts are only to be used temporarily until 2030. The passing of the proposition now allows Democrats to compete for seats typically held by Republicans. He said the newly configured districts will emphasize the importance of Latino voters to politicians from both parties as they head into next year’s midterm elections.
Data collected from the Latino Community Foundation and BSP Research in September found that 66% of Latinos in California were worried about President Trump sending federal officials to monitor polling places during the Proposition 50 special election.
With over 60% of Latinos who participated in the survey saying that they would vote in the special election and 46% saying they would vote yes, local officials anticipated that Latinos would have influence over election results.
But many feared the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement would discourage many eligible voters from voting in person. While poll monitoring isn’t uncommon and is considered common practice, California Attorney General Rob Bonta noted that this otherwise typical activity could take on different meaning in the broader context of the Trump administration’s actions. Critics, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, argued that the federal monitoring is voter intimidation.
“It’s a pattern isn’t it? It’s consistent with what they’ve done with the federalization of the National Guard and the intimidation, and the chill that’s created. They’ll do that right around election day as well,” Newsom said on X. “This is a bridge too far and I hope people understand it’s a bridge that they’re trying to build, the scaffolding, for all across this country in next November’s election.”
Anita Pascasio, a Mission District resident, acknowledged the concerns but didn’t let that discourage her from voting, which she said she saw as an opportunity to show up for her community.
“We are being targeted, but we’re still gonna show up and vote,” Pascasio said on Election Day. “It’s very important that we have our voices heard and especially voting. Well, for me, I feel I’m not just voting for myself, but also for people who cannot vote, cannot go out there and vote.”
“I don’t want to say, ‘don’t be afraid,’” she added, “because it’s easy for me to say that — my status here is different, maybe than some people. But for those that can vote, I would like them to get out there and do it, so that collectively, we all are able to make this difference, the difference we need, and to fight for ourselves, to fight for our people.”
On Oct. 24, Trump announced that the Department of Justice would deploy election monitors to five California counties: Los Angeles, Fresno, Riverside, Orange and Kern counties. The Trump administration argued it was necessary to “ensure transparency, ballot security and compliance with federal law.” However, there was little indication of federal monitors looming on Election Day. The Fresno Bee reported finding only two election monitors at polls in Fresno County.
Yvette Martinez, executive director of the California Democratic Party, echoed Newsom’s concerns and acknowledged the fears people had about voting in person. She said she told her own family members, who take pride in voting in person, to vote by mail instead.
“People should be alarmed that the federal government said they were sending federal agents to five big counties, five counties that happen to overlap with large Latino populations,” she said ahead of the special election. “No one should be afraid to vote. It’s your right to vote. It’s your civic duty to vote.”
Despite this fear among Latino voters, community organizations encouraged Latino communities to show up to vote in person. Notably, Boyle Heights, a Los Angeles neighborhood, had community organizers marching on the streets on Election Day encouraging Latinos to “perreo to the polls,” Boyle Heights Beat reported.
Arana, of the Latino Community Foundation, cited this as a moment of power in Latino communities, and because of this, he said he suspected that the presidential administration might continue to target Latino voters. But he encouraged people to see the power that they have in numbers and community.
“Even in the face of fear and anxiety, community came together and affirmed their power no matter what,” he said. “We should never discount the importance of community-based organizations that work with their neighbors to help them understand their power during moments like this. Because no matter where you fall on certain issues or certain candidates, I think the importance of showing up, not just for our democracy but for each other, is going to be very important as we head into next year’s election.”