SEA LEVEL RISE THREATENS WATERFRONT DEVELOPMENT
1st in a Series
NEW CONSTRUCTION WORTH BILLIONS COULD BE FLOODED WITHIN DECADES
Summer 2015 — The Bay Area’s current waterfront building frenzy includes at least $21 billion in housing and commercial construction in low-lying areas that climate scientists say could flood by the end of the century. In examining approval processes for new buildings on the edge of San Francisco Bay, our team found that some cities are greenlighting waterfront development without planning for the long term or fully accounting for the future cost of reconfiguring large projects to resist flooding.
In light of a new convergence in scientific projections — in which sea level rise could drive floodwaters during extreme storms as high as 8 feet above today’s high tide — some scientists and community activists are calling for reforms. That may not happen before all these new waterfront communities and office parks get built. Developers say they can raise the land, waterproof basements and build levees and seawalls much higher to protect residents and businesses. But critics say the burden of protecting new real estate is being passed on to the taxpayers of the next two or three generations.
» READ our 2017 follow-up, Sea Level Rise: Wild West on the Waterfront. »
See part 2 of this series: Wild West on the Waterfront, from the spring 2017 edition.
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1. Major S.F. Bayfront Developments Advance Despite Sea Rise WarningsBuilders plan to invest more than $21 billion in offices and homes in flood-prone areas, where waters could climb 8 feet above today’s high tide by the end of this century Published July 29, 2015 |
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2. As Science Gets Better, Dramatic Sea Rise Seems More CertainWhy 8 feet is an unlikely but worrisome possibility Published July 29, 2015 |
3. Map Shows $21 Billion in Construction at RiskWe found 27 proposals for major construction projects that could be flooded in decades due to climate change Published July 29, 2015 |
4. Hear From the ExpertsResearchers and policy professionals weigh in on sea level change Published July 29, 2015 |
5. With Dozens of Local and Regional Governments, Baywide Planning is HardLocal governments are struggling to coordinate against sea level rise with efforts worsening adjacent towns Published July 29, 2015 |
6. Bay Area Governments Study Sea Level Rise, but Few Set Limits on DevelopmentCities and counties working to revise obsolete land-use plans based on inconsistent flood maps Published July 29, 2015 |
7. Four Ways to Guard Against Sea Level RiseBay Area cities have four main options to fight against sea level rise Published July 29, 2015 |
8. Mission Bay PioneersWorking and living in a new waterfront neighborhood Published July 29, 2015 |
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| See coverage of this project from Mother Jones, KQED, San Francisco Magazine and more.
ABOUT THIS REPORTING PROJECT |
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In recent years, researchers in many disciplines have mapped detailed projections for potential flooding as sea levels rise. And, importantly, these models now mostly agree. The Public Press compared these models against local and regional policies and with recent building permit data. The research reveals that billions of dollars worth of planned development could be threatened by rising waters within a human lifetime. REPORTING: Kevin Stark, Winifred Bird, Michael Stoll, Emily Dugdale, Lulu Orozco, Paul Lorgerie, Sophie Murguia, Caroline Cakebread and Tanya Dzekon EDITING: Laura Impellizzeri, Kevin McKean and Katherine Bourzac CARTOGRAPHY: Marcea Ennamorato, Maia Wachtel and Brittany Burson of the UC Berkeley Cartography & GIS Education Lab PHOTO & VIDEO: Eric Lawson, Peter Snarr and Dayvon Dunaway ILLUSTRATION & DESIGN: Erika Rae Langdon, Clark Miller, Emily Underwood and Anna Vignet ONLINE: Amanda Hickman SPECIAL THANKS: John Upton of Climate Central THIS PROJECT WAS MADE POSSIBLE BY DONATIONS FROM PUBLIC PRESS MEMBERS, AND BY A CHALLENGE GRANT FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO FOUNDATION |
